For the second straight year, weve also run the same process using the Average Total Cost (ATC) Projections as our base. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors by Retrosheet. Manny Machado. These standings reflect everything through yesterdays Hunter Renfroe trade. I talked quite a lot about Francos outlook when he he signed his big ol contract extension, so I wont rehash that here. The Angels are a lackluster team with a lackluster offseason, so they ended up with a lackluster projection. "@HaloDom47 Whatever it projected was thrown out of whack because of Rendons bitch ass and a lot of the injuries that happened to other players most notably Trout. It's not all bad. The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is live. Trading for Randal Grichuk to do the same is a little less cool but still fun. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. I dont believe thats a safe assumption at all. He's a switch-hitter with a hit/power combination that would probably make him an All-Star anywhere on the diamond, while also being a plus defender at the most demanding . The Rangers have stopped digging the hole, but 2022 is probably too soon for them to climb out. What I do see them doing in FA is what Francona loves: platoons at 1B, Dh, and CF. Lets start with how teams performed versus their projections: Teams have gotten a bit more polarized in how theyre run in-season. 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings AL Central, 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings NL Central. This 85-win projection is based on more solid ground. ), Cleveland will outspend them in add-ons. The full win total disparity between the two projection engines can be seen below: Both projections have the Dodgers, Braves and Blue Jays as the teams with the highest probability of reaching the postseason; ATC gives a slight edge to the Braves over the Blue Jays. Fangraphs 2022 Projected Standings 1399 points 617 comments 78 45 comments Take_Some_Soma SD '84 1 yr. ago Fool me once, shame on you. The Phillies were one of the most active teams during the offseason, signing Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to slug in the middle of their lineup and bringing in a bunch of late-inning options in the bullpen. Shane Bazs elbow injury is concerning, but Yonny Chirinos should be making a return from his own elbow injury and Corey Kluber was signed to give them a little more stability in their rotation. Fangraphs: 2022 Top 100 Prospects. Like the Rays, the projection systems have no idea what to do with the Giants. Or at least make the last two not an absolute dumpster fire. Call 1-800-GAMBLER. The last move giving Rodrguez the chance to start with the team may be the biggest source. Bold of you to assume deGrom will be healthy in October. Still, if they make the playoffs in 2022 as close a certainty youll get in baseball these days theyll join the 19912005 Atlanta Braves and the 19952007 New York Yankees as the only teams in history to make the playoffs for an entire decade. Thats a lot of ifs that have to go right, though. The problem is, hitting home runs has never really been the Rockies problem. Many of Chicagos projections are notably south of where they were in 2022, and there are still at least two fairly serious holes in the starting lineup that the team better be more serious about filling this year. The RosterResource 2023 Opening Day Roster Tracker Is Here! Create an account to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations. Bryce Harpers return from elbow surgery is, of course, one of the real X factors thats hard to fully consider here. . They just need to win 62.2% at home and just 48% on the road, the way that they did in 2007 and 2009, in order to be a playoff team. None of Starling Marte, Mark Canha, or Eduardo Escobar are superstars though Marte comes close at times but signing that trio really improved how the lineup looks going into 2022. Over the last decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.9 correct teams when looking at Vegas preseason over/under lines. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Loosely, money spent outside of planned raises and inexpensive (think 2yrs, $13M or 1yr, $4.5M) roster hole plugging that every team does. If they can find a few midseason upgrades for their pitching staff, or if Paddack blossoms in his new home, they could make the White Sox sweat down the stretch. And thats where all these models are built. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. The Premier League fixtures for the 2022-23 season were announced on Thursday June 16, 2022 at 4am ET. The rebellious part of me wanted to pick Steven Kwan as my staff pick for Rookie of the Year, but with Julio Rodrguez and Torkelson both going north with their teams, that would have been a stretch. Even with a healthy team here Fangraphs projection stands and the Angels are projected to finish in 4th place in the AL West." Uras projects to essentially repeat his 2021 season. Ariel was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. It's our predicted best guess on the early college basketball rankings after Week 11. ZiPS projects the Rockies to be better than only the Nationals, but I expect the Nats have a better idea of exactly where their team is than the Rockies do. No fucking way they are that low next year. Before we get to the 2023 ZiPS projections, theres still some unfinished work from 2022 to do. Now, I did say there was one major exception, and thats in-season roster changes. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, But without their ace, their ceiling is just a bit lower. They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. Theyre bound to be better than last year, if only because it would take a disaster of a season to repeat their 2021 failures. Correa is an interesting wild card here simply because he elevates the Mets' lineup from top-heavy to balanced. You can see how all the talent on their roster could come together to form a contender, but the specter of their late-season collapse looms large. Now, imagine a scenario in which Acua isnt quite ready, Ozuna is struggling, and the Braves have to field a designated hitter in addition to cobbling together whatever at first. Gambling problem? Similar to the Yankees with Judge, the Astros arent likely to just shrug and stand pat if Justin Verlander doesnt return. Renfroe is actually helpful for an organization that has proven bad at surrounding its stars with secondary talent, but theres a lot to do if the Angels are going to even maintain this place in the standings. Jeremy Pea has shown plenty of promise in the minors and comes in highly regarded, but hes simply not likely to replace his production immediately or fully. You could make an argument for any of these four teams to sit atop these rankings, though, and thats why theyre presented in tiers rather than a straight numerical order. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? With their rebuilding phase quickly coming to an end, they traded for Jesse Winker, Eugenio Surez, and Adam Frazier, and signed Ray to a long-term contract. Chapman seems to come up in trade talks reasonably regularly, but Im not sure the As actually move him this year unless the playoff race is an uphill battle in July. I dont see them trading for Murphy. Where the Chisox lie, your kind of significance starts at $40. Eliminating the gap is a fools errand. The exercise continues this offseason. Bryson Stott (No. But for whatever reason, PECOTA has finally started to like the Braves. The contract that Carlos Correa signed with the Twins really calls into question some of the Yankees maneuvering during the final weeks of the offseason. Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a. Approximately minutes of joyous analysis. The surprises start at the top, with the Braves sitting ahead of the Dodgers for the top spot in the preseason rankings. And two, because fans absolutely lose their minds at these things. Not giving Witt every opportunity to be a foundational talent at shortstop so that the Royals can be a .480 team instead of a .478 one doesnt feel like it has the same upside. If you squint, you can sort of see how it could work out for them, but theyll likely come up short this season. Depth Charts: FanGraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff. That thins out their pitching staff significantly; theyre now relying on a 40-year-old Adam Wainwright to lead the rotation and are counting on the health of Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson, and Jordan Hicks after that trio combined for 29 appearances over the last two years. by Handedness. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion the computational algorithms, that is (no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond). On the pitching side of things, lingering elbow issues for Lance McCullers Jr. have made the depth of their rotation a question mark. Their lineup is plenty strong, though, with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker forming a powerful quartet. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. The Rays are another possible answer, though. In the National League West, ATC is more bearish on the Padres. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. ZiPS then automatically fills in playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings. The team has a credible backup at most positions and even some upper minors depth (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and, if you believe Steamer rather than ZiPS, Khalil Lee) they can use if the need arises. 2022 Year to Date: 2022 Projected Rest of Season: Still, the 2022 version of this AL powerhouse looks a little less potent than previous editions. As for Baseball Prospectus, theyr projection model is called PECOTA which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, as Im sure you knew. The As have made a lot of improbable runs, but if they cause pain to the Astros and Mariners this year, it might be their most impressive surprise yet. Bobby Witt Jr. made the Opening Day roster, and MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto should be close behind him. FanGraphs simulates each season 10,000 times to generate the probabilities. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. Number in parentheses is where each team finished in last week's rankings. Calibration is a long-term project, and while chasing greater accuracy in mean projections isnt likely to result in any huge bounty theres a reason projection systems are so tightly clustered theres still improvement to be had in things like calibrating uncertainty and long-term data. The Yankees may not bring Aaron Judge back, but it would be absolutely shocking if they didnt do something to replace the wins they would lose with his departure. Im inclined to agree that theres probably no way to truly solve the hangover, but I think theres also almost certainly a type of player profile that could be identified who would be less liable to suffer so much on the road. Playoff odds tell how likely an MLB team will win the division, wild card berth or win the World Series. The offensive holes arent so deep as to prevent baseballs or electromagnetic radiation from escaping. Prior to signing Ramrez, Cleveland had been inconceivably passive during the offseason, signing just a single free agent to a new major league contract (Luke Maile). Interestingly, projected for the 8th best record and 4th best (tied) run differential. If I were a Rockies fan, Id have voted to legalize psychedelic mushrooms, too. Thats a trickier question, given the contours of the roster. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. But the lineup imploded. That move alters the direction of the organization considerably. Lets start with the good news first: Kansas Citys offense has several very interesting offensive players in the high minors. Heres their model for the 2022 Atlanta Braves: As you can see, FanGraphs is pretty high on the 2022 team. Read the rest of this entry . Last year, I introduced these power rankings as a way to think about all 30 teams in baseball and stack them up against each other outside the rigid structures of leagues or divisions. Sign up for the They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. If the goal was to sign him to an extension no matter what, then they should have signed some players to play with him this year and next, while his salary is still relatively low. The methodology Im using here is the same one I use in the regular season, and as such, it isnt identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings. 60% bachata, 20% kizomba, and 20% salsa. The Baltimore Orioles are partially responsible for that, with two more expected wins according to ATC. The addition of Trevor Story to their roster gives the Red Sox three superstars on the infield with a fantastic supporting cast led by J.D. As terrific as he was in 2021, with a .271/.341/.540 line and 5.0 WAR, ZiPS isnt projecting a dropoff, thanks both to regression and because it thinks he was somewhat unlucky in BABIP the last two years relative to his hit data. ATC: ATC Projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen. To support those two generational talents, the Angels focused on shoring up their biggest weakness during this stretch of frustration: their pitching staff. You can read more about how ATC works in this introductory article. Instead, they tore everything down to the studs. Which team in baseball has the best middle infield? On the offensive side of things, they added Jorge Soler, Avisal Garca, Joey Wendle, and Jacob Stallings, giving them a lineup that could be good enough to support their young pitching. Today was that glorious day for two of the biggest sites in the baseball universe, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. These 2023 projections are guaranteed to be awful, wrong in many ways ranging from tragic to comic. Been watching a bunch of old games and it's amazing to [Passan] Outfielder Juan Soto and the San Diego Padres Nightengale: DH Nelson Cruz has agreed to a one-year [Lin] Jake Cronenworth and the Padres avoided arbitration Press J to jump to the feed. San Diego retained Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez, and having a full season of Juan Soto and (hopefully) most of a year of Fernando Tatis Jr. is quite the boost. Whether the anti-service time manipulation rules in the new CBA influenced many teams to carry their top prospects on their Opening Day rosters is up for debate. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Braves Hall of Fame profile: Bronson Arroyo. The exercise continues this offseason. Probably not. Theyve assembled a surprisingly competent starting rotation given their home park, but the supporting cast for whichever stars are on their roster be it Bryant, Story, or Nolan Arenado just hasnt been good enough. Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement. Projected amid the pack this offseason, the Twins have likely shoved their way out of the scrum by adding Correa and Sonny Gray. We had four good months last year. edit: damnit, I screwed it up. Olson, Chapman, Bassitt, and Manaea were all traded away this spring, and Frankie Montas will likely be sent to the highest bidder during the season. The Reds made it very clear that they were looking to slash payroll this offseason, bending over backwards to frame their roster deconstruction as the beginning of a realignment, not a rebuild. And at that number Cleveland wont play. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. The Diamondbacks lost 110 games in a year where anything that could go wrong did. The success of ATC stems from minimizing parameter risk across the player pool, which you can read more about here. ATC is smart aggregation of other projections; its methodology is based on the process that Nate Silver uses with his political forecasting model over at FiveThirtyEight. The Twins surprised everyone when they landed Correa as their starting shortstop. Duke Blue Devils 13-5 (24) After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. Not for thr names floated and not if theyre keeping Naylor. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please. Theyll have their work cut out for them in a stacked AL East, especially after missing out on the playoffs by one game last year, but their combination of young star power and big-name offseason acquisitions should get them over the hump and back into the postseason in 2022. Skiing in the Rockies sucks this time of year, Fangraphs' Newly Updated International Prospect Rankings, FanGraphs projects struggles for Giants in 2022 season. Now, hes the big loss, but Jameson Taillon and Matt Carpenter matter, too, though it isnt likely that Carpenter will match his 2022 performance anyway. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. The Guardians have a brand-new identity and just locked up the face of their franchise, Jos Ramrez, to a huge extension. Juan Soto is one of the most electrifying young players in the game; Washington would do well to extend him and then build a winner around him again. Theyll get Ronald Acua Jr. and Mike Soroka back from their respective injuries sometime during the season; Marcell Ozuna will return to the roster as well. This starts with bullishness on the Matts. Its insane. The premium ad-free membership. Without further ado, here are the ATC forecasted win totals for 2022: And here are the simulated standings and playoffs odds: Lets take a quick look at some of the differences between the results for the ATC projections and the FanGraphs playoff odds. Which is what the Chisox are supposed to do on $10M. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Next up: The start of the team-by-team projections, beginning with the Boston Red Sox. No team was luckier than the Mariners last year. Getting back to the four-win threshold would still make him All-Star level, though. In the. Which is why I doubt the $10M number. The FGDC model has them at 83% to make the postseason (31% to win the division), while ATC has them at 75% (just 25% for the division). ATC Projections Expected 2022 Win Totals. The irony in that is, I could make an argument this team has more current question marks than last years team at this point with an unsettled outfield, an unsettled rotation, Ronald Acuna Jr coming off a major injury, same with Charlie Morton, etc. I cant say Im displeased to see Luis Uras at the top of the batter list Ive long been fascinated by him and even featured him on my breakout list last year but Id definitely be uneasy about having him as my teams best player. If you dont know, FanGraphs uses both the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for the individual inputs in their model. Yes, the " ZiPs" projections developed by FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski still see the Tigers as a sub-.500 team. They use those projections to calculate how many runs a given team will score and allow over a full season, use that to come up with an expected winning percentage for each team, and then uses that winning percentage and run a Monte Carlo simulation for a full 162 games. It's supposed to be, "fool me once shame on you, fool me can't get fooled again." _Thot_Patrol They did sign Kendall Graveman and Joe Kelly during the offseason, but without Kimbrel or Crochet, the relief corps just isnt as deep as it could have been. If Justin Verlander doesnt return were announced on Thursday June 16, 2022 at 4am.., run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com best guess on ZiPS. Be close behind him stems from minimizing parameter risk across the player pool, which can... 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